Learn why single-date forecasts create false precision and fail on complex IT delivery, and how to forecast probabilistically instead. Use historical throughput to build a Monte Carlo-style forecast range with honest confidence levels, and package it as a reusable Forecast Range Worksheet.
Watch the free preview
The false precision of "the date" — free to watch, no account needed.
What you'll learn
- Explain why a single-date forecast creates false precision and fails on complex IT work
- Describe forecasting as a probability distribution with confidence levels, not one guaranteed number
- Measure historical throughput and use it as the raw material for an evidence-based forecast
- Produce a Monte Carlo-style forecast range from historical throughput data
- Build a Forecast Range Worksheet that communicates delivery dates with honest confidence levels
Syllabus
Why Single-Date Forecasts Fail
The false precision of "the date"Free preview
Forecasting as probability, not prophecy
Throughput and the Forecasting Engine
Throughput — the raw material of forecasting
Monte Carlo forecasting explained
Forecasting Real IT Delivery
Building a forecast range in practice
Case study — the sponsor who demands "the date"
Making Forecasting Stick
Building the Forecast Range Worksheet
Common forecasting traps to avoid